What is the return of the stock market after inflation?
Average Market Return for the Last 30 Years
Over the long term, the average historical stock market return has been about 7% a year after inflation. Looking at long periods of time rather than any one year shows something else—remarkable consistency.
How Does Inflation Affect Stocks? Inflation hurts stocks overall because consumer spending drops. Value stocks may do well because their prices haven't kept up with their peers. Growth stocks tend to be shunned by investors.
The S&P 500 followed its 26.28% gain in 2023 with a 1.68% gain in January despite a lackluster start to fourth-quarter earnings season.
The average stock market return is about 10% per year, as measured by the S&P 500 index, but that 10% average rate is reduced by inflation. Investors can expect to lose purchasing power of 2% to 3% every year due to inflation. » Learn more about purchasing power with NerdWallet's inflation calculator.
Period | Annualized Return (Nominal) | Annualized Real Return (Adjusted for Inflation) |
---|---|---|
10 years (2012-2021) | 14.8% | 12.4% |
30 years (1992-2021) | 9.9% | 7.3% |
50 years (1972-2021) | 9.4% | 5.4% |
2 In general, beating inflation requires a return on investment of at least 4% to 6% per year, in addition to whatever income is generated or saved for.
But holding equities during periods of high inflation could be beneficial for a couple of reasons. For one, stocks are considered an inflation hedge against soaring prices. They could help you equal or outpace the average rate of inflation over the long term.
Several asset classes perform well in inflationary environments. Tangible assets, like real estate and commodities, have historically been seen as inflation hedges. Some specialized securities can maintain a portfolio's buying power, including certain sector stocks, inflation-indexed bonds, and securitized debt.
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
Is a 2023 stock market rebound?
Stocks bounced back decisively in 2023, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 20% through July before retreating between August and October. In November, markets recovered, and stocks closed out the year with a sharp rally. Source: U.S. Bank Asset Management Group.
As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.
YTD return is the amount of profit (or loss) realized by an investment since the first trading day of the current calendar year. YTD calculations are commonly used by investors and analysts to assess the performance of a portfolio or to compare the recent performance of a number of stocks.
The Warren Buffett Portfolio obtained a 9.59% compound annual return, with a 13.65% standard deviation, in the last 30 Years. The US Stocks Portfolio obtained a 9.95% compound annual return, with a 15.54% standard deviation, in the last 30 Years.
If your aim is to generate a monthly income of $3,000 from your investments, understanding your anticipated average return is essential. Let's imagine that you achieve a reasonable average annual return rate of 10%. In this scenario, an investment total of $360,000 would be required.
The best stock market performance by a president in the post-World War II era came under Bill Clinton; the S&P 500 was up a whopping 210% in his two-term presidency, from 1993-2001. The second-best return under a U.S. president? That would be Barack Obama's eight-year tenure when the S&P was up 189% from 2009-2017.
Stock market returns between 1950 and 2023
This is a return on investment of 262,677.57%, or 11.28% per year. This lump-sum investment beats inflation during this period for an inflation-adjusted return of about 20,684.03% cumulatively, or 7.51% per year.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Certificates of deposit (CDs) and share certificates.
- Money market accounts.
- Treasury securities.
- Series I bonds.
- Municipal bonds.
- Corporate bonds.
- Money market funds.
Highlights: 5.2% 10-year expected nominal return for U.S. large-cap equities; 9.9% for European equities; 9.1% for emerging-markets equities; 5.0% for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of September 2023). All return assumptions are nominal (non-inflation-adjusted).
What Is the Real Rate of Return? The real rate of return is the annual percentage of profit earned on an investment, adjusted for inflation.
What is the best investment during inflation Warren Buffett?
Real estate. Real estate is generally a “good investment” during times of inflation, according to Buffett. “They're the businesses that you buy once and then you don't have to keep making capital investments subsequently.
Collectors. Historically, collectibles like fine art, wine, or baseball cards can benefit from inflationary periods as the dollar loses purchasing power. During high inflation, investors often turn to hard assets that are more likely to retain their value through market volatility.
- Equities. Equities generally offer a reliable haven during inflationary times. ...
- Real Estate. Real estate is another tried-and-true inflationary hedge. ...
- Commodities (Non-Gold) ...
- Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) ...
- Savings Bonds. ...
- Gold.
Keep the money you set aside for the future in a savings account that earns dividends so that your balance gradually increases over time. This can be an effective way to combat inflation. If you have some money you won't need to access immediately, consider share certificates.
- Switch to a high-yield savings account.
- Lock in a CD rate that beats inflation.
- Diversify your investment portfolio.
- Focus on your emergency fund.
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